Nigeria’s Military Says Attacks Fell 73% in October. Independent Data Urges Caution
Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters says attacks across its operational theatres fell by 73.3 per cent in October, from 367 incidents in September to 98.
Director of Defence Media Operations Michael Onoja gave the figures in Abuja on Friday. Operation Whirl Stroke in the north-east recorded 12 attacks, Operation Udo Ka recorded four, and Operations Delta Safe and Savannah Shield recorded one each. Troops also killed more than 217 insurgents and criminals, arrested 333 suspects and rescued 349 kidnapping victims. The military said it recovered 756,837 litres of stolen crude oil products and destroyed 49 illegal refining sites.
The figures cover attacks the military recorded in its own theatres, and they are not independently verified. They also sit alongside a deadly month. Military leaders extended condolences over the 23 October attack on a civilian community in Taraba State, promising swift justice. The Taraba toll has since risen to at least 62, according to the state head of the National Emergency Management Agency.
Fewer attacks do not always mean fewer deaths. A Premium Times analysis of conflict data from the ACLED project found that after the 2023 presidential election, recorded attacks on civilians in seven northern states fell 4.5 per cent, while estimated fatalities rose 38.3 per cent.
Politics could be a factor in what comes next. Defence Minister Christopher Musa has linked recurring rises in attacks to election periods, though he said individual motives are hard to establish. Nigeria votes in January.
